Judith Curry says This paper explores ways to understand, assess, and reason about uncertainty in climate science, with specific application to the IPCC assessment process. Section 2 describes the challenges of understanding and characterizing uncertainty in dynamical models of complex systems, including challenges to interpreting the ensemble of simulations for the twenty-firstcentury climate used in the IPCC assessment reports. Section 3 addresses some issues regarding reasoning about uncertainty and examines the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC Assessment Reports. Section 4 addresses uncertainty in the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. And finally, section 5 introduces some ideas for monster taming strategies at the levels of in
Judith A. Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for atmospheric research. She is a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee.
Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002), as well as over 140 scientific papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.
Regarding climate change, she thinks that the IPCC reports typically neglect what she calls the “Uncertainty Monster”in projecting future climate trends, which she calls a “wicked problem.” Curry also hosts a popular science blog in which she writes on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface.
Here is her blog